Kouz Pushes Pads Off Lidge

In an exciting game for both sides, the Padres pounded Phillie closer Brad Lidge in the 9th inning to take the lead for good. Jody Gerut led off the inning, which the club entered down 4-5, with a laser double (helped by former Friar Shane Victorino's moderate misplay of the ball). Some of the better situational hitting FF can remember from David Eckstein and Brian Giles plated Gerut, pulling the Padres even while simultaneously handing Lidge his first blown save a Phillie (he had amassed a 53 game streak). Adrian Gonzalez and Chase Headley followed with some patiently aggressive hitting - patient in these cases - with a pair of walks with 2 down. This brought up Kevin Kouzmanoff, who launched a bomb into left center to put the Padres up by a trio. Heath Bell then entered the game, retiring the side in order to pick up his 7th save of the post-Hoffman era (out of nine Friar wins to date).

Ring a Bell
FF was not pleased to see Bell warm up and enter the game. He threw 47 pitches in the last two days and has appeared in 7 or the Friars 12 games overall. We love having a guy that wants the ball, but we'd love to see Bud Black play things safe with Bell, especially given the 3 run lead in the game. Counting tonight's game, Bell has now thrown 67 pitches over three outings across three days. Even a burly dude that is "Wii Fit" needs a break every now and then.

Down with OCD
While we at FF generally like Black, we've long been concerned about his bullpen management, which seems to rely on a few relievers ad nauseam. See "Everyday Cla" and "The Joe Thatcher Story". We here a new installment featuring Luke Gregerson is in the works.

Thatcher Blasted, Again

In what has become a common theme in the 2008 season San Diego manager, Bud Black, hands the ball to relief pitcher, Joe Thatcher, and the lefty proceeds to get absolutely hammered. Thatcher, acquired last July in the Scott Linebrink deal, impressed with a 1.29 ERA in 22 games as a rookie. The reliver has responded this season by posting a ridiculous 8.42 ERA in 25 appearances. The latest installment helped the Reds to their series winning victory 9-5 on Wednesday as Thatcher recorded 2 outs while surrendering 5 earned runs. FF is not sure whether Thatcher's performance is worse than the fact that Bud Black continues to hand him the ball.

Padres KO Kuroda

The Padres had to be worried this offseason with the Dodger's acquisition of Japanese phenom Hiroki Kuroda. After a decent start, Kuroda's shutto has gotten the Tom Selleck treatment, this time with a back-to-back bombs from Brian Giles (to right center at Petco) and Adrian Gonzales (another opposite field shot), kicking off a 9-0 ass-whoopin'. Giles' shot gave Jake Peavy, making his first start since straining his forearm in mid-May, a 3 run lead, with A. Gone adding his 59th RBI of the season (he would eventaually add number 60). Gonzales' little big brother remained hot, with 3 more hits to boost his average to .322. The only Padre not to get in on the action was Kevin Kouzmanoff, who is in the midst of a major slump that has drawn his average down to .254. Bud Black had Peavy on a pitch count of about 90, but Jake would only require 72 to beat LA in 6 innings (4 punch outs, 3 hits allowed, 0 walks).

Notes:

• Luke Carlin managed RBI number one for this career with a first inning fielder's choice. He would then force in a run via a walk in the third.
  
• The Padres are now 8 games under .500.
• Joe Thatcher was optioned back to AAA Portland to make room for Peavy's return.
  

New Wave Of Padres

Kevin Towers and the Padres promote 4 minor leaguers on Thursday as three pitchers and AA catcher Colt Morton join the big league club. The three AAA hurlers include Mike Adams, who was 3-1 with a 5.52 ERA, Jared Wells, 5.85 ERA with 9 saves, and Josh Banks who is 1-1 with a 6.66 ERA in 8 games at Portland. To make room for the newest players the Friars sent both Josh Bard and Chris Young to the 15 day DL after they were each injured in the 3rd inning of Wednesday's game. San Diego also sent Joe Thatcher back to Portland and released Justin Germano.

Towers said he was going to make wholesale changes, which he has started to do. The only question FF has is where is Chase Headley?

Shake Up Continues

The Padres and Boston Red Sox completed a trade Sunday that will send 34 year old right handed reliever Bryan Corey to San Diego in exchange for cash or a player to be named. The addition of Corey, who has posted an ERA of 4.40 in 59.1 career innings with a strikeout to walk ratio of nearly 2 to 1, means that southpaw reliver Joe Thatcher will be demoted to Portland where he will look to regain the form that he showed last year after coming over in the Scott Linebrink trade from the Brewers. Sunday's trade marks the 3rd consecutive day that the Padres roster has been altered, FF likes to see the Padres brass trying to correct a poorly constructed team.

Estes Steps into Rotation

As we speculated Tuesday, Shawn Estes will assume the 5th spot in the starting rotation. Additionally, as the U-T also hints in the previously referenced article, we expect Joe Thatcher to be sent to Portland in order to make room for Sean Henn. Then again, we've frequently discussed Bud Black's unhealthy reliance on Thatcher, particularly in critical situations, so you never know...

UPDATE:
Glendon Rusch was outrighted to make room for Henn and will likely become a free agent.

Another Lackluster Loss

The San Diego Padres continue to be outclassed by all opponents this season as they fall to the scorching Atlanta Braves 5-2 on Wednesday night. The Padres scored the first run of the game in the second inning on a balk by Braves righty Tim Hudson. The second and final Padre run tied the game in the sixth as a run scored on a Kevin Kouzmanoff double play ball. Randy Wolf escaped multiple jams by inducing 4 twin killings before leaving with the bases loaded in the 7th of a tie game. Bubby Black handed the ball to Joe Thatcher who promptly coughed up the 3 runs that closed out the Atlanta victory.

FF wishes that just once or twice a week the storyline and game type would be different. Unfortunatley we are all finding out that this is a bad baseball team, with the majority of the season to determone how bad. The Union Tribune pointed out that this 08 Padres squad is on pace for over 100 defeats, buckle in for the rest of this long bumpy ride.

Peavy Paces Padre Victory

Jake Peavy was the stopper for San Diego, despite allowing a two run homer in the first to put the Padres down by 1. In recent weeks, this would have been enough to sink the Friars, but Peavy buckled down and the offensive showed signs of life on the way to defeating the Fish Saturday evening at Dolphin Stadium 7-2. The 2, 3, 4 and 5 hitters, Tadihito Iguchi, Adrian Gonzalez, Kevin Kouzmanoff and Jim Edmonds, respectively, all managed at least two hits to lead the barrage. To cap off the scoring, Gonzalez notched his third hit with an opposite field bomb (putting him on pace for 35 on the season). Every position player had a hit on the evening; this includes Callix Crabbe, who came in for Khalil Greene in the 7th to play shortstop. Greene's injury has is reported by Padres.com to be an irritated left eye, with no word on when he is likely to return to the lineup.

Peavy went 5 2/3 innings with 8 punchouts, but should have completed 6 if not for a missed strike three call by the home plate umpire on a back door slider. Cla Meredith and Heath Bell were brought and performed inline with traditional bullpen expectations. Bud Black finally found an comfortable inning for Joe Thatcher to work out the kinks in the ninth. After appearing a bit erratic, the now cut-fastball avoiding sidewinding southpaw, induced a double play and slick play from Kouz to end the game.

Crabbe Slick at Short
Crabbe did his best Khalil impression in the ninth with a nifty turn to complete a double play on the a feed from Iguchi. Earlier, Edmonds was easily tossed a second base on an apparent missed run and hit with Crabbe at the plate.

Marlins Announcing Crew
These guys don't call the best game in the league, but FF gives them credit for being one of the few opposing duos that call it fair enough that we don't have to break out the mute button.

Padres Bullpen Once Again Falters

Another strong Randy Wolf start was spoiled by the bullpen and shaky Padres offense - this time a 6 inning, 9 strikeout effort that kept the team in the game. The 3-2 loss at Citizens Bank Park saw Joe Thatcher allow a go ahead home run to Ryan Howard in the 8th. For the 2008 campaign, Thatcher has allowed a run in 6 of 13 outings and has yet to make a single appearance without allowing at least one hit or walk. By comparison, Thatcher allowed just 3 earned runs in 22 appearances for Bud Black in the 2007 season. He also posted perfect appearances (no walks or hits) in 9 of those 2007 outings. A big question for Padre fans has to be why Black continues to trot an ice cold Thatcher to the hill in critical situations. Should the Padres offense have the ability to plate more than a run or two game, the lack of conversion by the 'pen might not be as noticeable. The lineup boasts just a single hitter batting over .260 at the moment, Adrian Gonzalez (2-4, 2B, HR), and only 4 of those hitters managed knocks on Thursday. Streakiness is certainly part of baseball, but at some point the patchwork outfield must begin to draw some attention for possible upgrades. One has to start thinking that a strategy that requires multiple players to have career years in order to be competitive in one of baseball's toughest divisions (if not the toughest) begs revisiting.

Debacle Againt Diamondbacks

The Padres struggles continued Saturday night at Chase Field, as they parlayed a 3-1 lead and quality start by Chris Young into a stinging 3-10 defeat. The bullpen once again faltered, partially on the back of an uncharacteristic error by Khalil Greene, who had just entered the game as part of a double switch before watching one pass through the wickets. Kevin Cameron would eventually allow 5 unearned runs on the error, as well as 3 hits and 3 walks to pair with one run of the earned variety. Prior to the game spiraling completely out of control - a common occurrence for the Friars lately - Joe Thatcher allowed the DBacks to take a 3-4 lead in the 7th with the help of defensive miscues by Callix Crabbe and Paul McAnulty. Thatcher would eventually be tagged for the loss.

The offense made a decent run of it (relatively speaking). On the plus side, 60% of their knocks were extra base hits and 40% were round-trippers (a 2B and HR by McAnanulty and a HR by Brian Giles). On the flip side, they only had 5 total hits to have their team batting average settle at .238, trending towards the Mendoza line. Just one week ago they were leading the National League in batting average. They are still struggling with extra base hits and have maintained their dismal rate of 1.8 extra base knocks per game over that time period. These are tough times for the Friar Fans - try to keep the faith.

Padres Pick Up Series By One

The Friars squeezed by the Dodgers 1-0 on a hot but smog-less Sunday afternoon game at Chavez Ravine to win the weekend series two games to one. Greg Maddux left the 95 degree heat after tossing 67 pitches over 5 innings of two hit ball, striking out a pair against a single walk. The heart of bullpen performed as you'd expect on paper, tossing four zeros on the board across Joe Thatcher, Cla Meredith, Heath Bell and Trevor Hoffman, respectively. The Padres lone run came on a moderately deep fly ball on a high change piece in the forth to Paul McAnulty, who again spelled Brian Giles. For the second consecutive game the Friars lone run was the result of a rare extra base hit. After Jim Edmonds walked to lead off the inning, shortstop Khalil Greene doubled Edmonds to third, where McAnulty would later convert him. This was the lone extra base knock for Bud Black's club.

Bell's Velocity Remains a Concern
As has been mentioned over the course of the season, Bell is regularly around 90 mph this in 2008 after typically hitting mid-to-high 90s in 2007. So far Bell is getting the job done with his less electric stuff, posting a 1.04 ERA over 8.2 innings, but he's notched just two strikeouts in the young season. FF is a big fan of Bell's, but we are concerned about how the decreased velocity bodes for his future health. We've many times noted the front office's love affair with relievers that post high strikeout to walk ratios. Last year, Bell put up nearly 10 K/BB while logging an out short of 94 innings over 81 outing, so it is unclear how the dichotomy between his reduced stuff and results will settle with the club in the long run.

Peavy Off, But Singles Lead the Way

Jake Peavy clearly didn't have his best pitches Friday night, but his mindset pushed him through his third quality start - and win - of the season. The offense picked up Peavy with a barrage of singles and a lone double to plate seven runs. Six Friars amassed multiple hit games with Kevin Kouzmanoff leading the way with a trio out of the cleanup spot. Callix Crabbe showed his impact in the eighth innings while pinch running for the ever-reliable Tony Clark. He easily stole second, then scored on Tad Iguchi's dribbler through the 3.5 hole. Given the continued struggles of future hall of famer Trevor Hoffman, who was again touched up for a run, despite earning a save, these kinds of insurance runs cannot be understated. The bullpen's other slow starter, Joe Thatcher also coughed up another run.

Tossed
Scotty Hairston threw a strike to Josh Bard to erase Dodger Russell Martin, who came into the plate with a half-hearted shoulder. Bard and Martin exchanged pats on their midsection and butt, respectively, to show no ill will.

Coach Hill Would Be Proud
Iguchi continues to impress FF by playing ball the right way (for you PLHS alumni out there, that means Coach Hill's way). On a run-and-hit, Iguchi practically threw his bat to protect flat-of-foot Brian Giles at second.

The Ghost of Bruce Bochey
Bud Black was momentarily possessed by Bruce Bochey at Dodger Stadium, instructing Jake Peavy to forgo a sacrifice bunt attempt to instead ground into an inning ending double play in the second.

Friar Rotation Round Up 2: Starts 6-10

The starting rotation continued their torrid pace during the second pass though the quintet, posting an astonishing 1.50 ERA, 0.75 WHIP and 5 quality starts. Tough to complain about that kind of production from the pitchers that shoulder the load for the entire staff. That said, while the winning percentage in quality starts from 1984 to 1991 was .674, the Friars posted a .400 over their last five games and just .500 for the 10 quality starts in 2008 (effectively). A starter has yet to produce a non-quality start, yet the team has just 5 wins to show for it. Nobody should get their underwear in a bunch at this juncture, but it certainly isn't encouraging.

While many expected the team to struggle at bat, not too many could have foreseen the perennially solid bullpen's swoon. Expected to the heart of the relief corps, Trevor Hoffman, Heath Bell, Cla Meredith and Joe Thatcher have taken all 5 team losses to go with a 5.59 ERA. In fact, both Thatcher and Hoffman has allowed more earned runs in 4 and 3 2/3 innings, respectively, than Greg Maddux has in 13. FF expects the pen to right its ship and the rotation to fall a little bit from its near perfect performance. The real question will be if the offense can provide enough run support to make the stellar staff's stuff stick.

Lefties, Walks Sink Padres

A trio of lefties took a strong start by Justin Germano (1 unearned run allowed over 6 innings) and turned it into a laugher. Step one in the three step path to defeat was lefty Joe Thatcher, who was clearly off his A-game after getting a ground out to kick off the seventh inning. He was allowed walk the bases loaded in a 1-1 game, with fellow lefty Bud Black standing by him to allow a 2 run single to 0-for-2008 Russell Martin. Black finally found his hook, bringing southpaw Glendon Rusch on to surrender a run scoring hit and collaborate with backstop Michael Barrett for a passed ball to plate another. A subsequent base knock by Padre nemesis Andrew Jones added the inning's umpteenth run. All told, Black under-managed the situation into a 6 run Dodger inning on just three hits. All of this following Brian Giles' game-tying jack over the Petco porch against a very sharp Hiroki Kuroda. FF generally thinks highly of Black, but is already flustered this season by his affinity for specific relievers (as we were in 2007). This is particularly unacceptable if the team is going to continue carrying 7 arms in the 'pen.

Hairston Launch Humbles Houston

The Padres have begun the 2008 season with two straight victories over the Houston Astros. The offense wasn't clicking on all cylinders as it was on opening night, but the Friars found Scott Hairston's 2 run blast enough to hold off Houston 2-1. The Padres had 2007 All Star, Chris Young, toeing the rubber on Tuesday and he battled through some control problems (5 walks in 5 2/3) to earn his first victory of the year. Young loaded the bases full of 'Stros after a base hit and 2 walks in the 6th. Skipper Bud Black turned the ball over to Joe Thatcher who got out of the jam after walking in the only Astro run of the game (and season). The lefty Thatcher retired the first batter of the 7th inning before giving way to side-winder Cla Meredith who cruised through the 2 batters he faced. Heath Bell worked a perfect 8th inning to set up baseball's all time saves leader in the top half of the 9th. Trevor Hoffman took his first steps into game action this year to the familiar sound of AC/DC's "Hells Bells". The Padres closer struck out the first and last batter he faced while working around a two out infield single.

Padres Points:

The Padres hand the ball to future Hall Of Fame hurler Greg Maddux on Wednesday night, the crafty right hander will attempt to keep pace with the top 2 pitchers in the Friar rotation.

Khalil Greene and Josh Bard each had multiple hit games with the Friar shortstop collecting 3, while the Padre backstop had 2. Brian Giles remains the only Padres regular without a hit through 2 games.

The Padres team ERA jumped all the way to 0.50 to kickoff the new year, Tuesday's 2-1 victory will be one of many close, low scoring affairs in 2008.

The Padres had a chance to extend their lead in the bottom half of the 8th (against former Friar Doug Brocail) after a 2 out Bard single sent Scott Hairston to second, an infield single by Paul McAnulty would have loaded the bases for a pinch hitter (presumably Tony Clark). Unfortunately, Scott Hairston got caught venturing too far off third after appearing to assume that P Mac would be called out at 1st.

Padres figure to start newly acquired Justin Huber in left tomorrow as the Astros will start a southpaw on the hill. Pads fans also figure to get their first view of the year of catcher Michael Barrett.

All time saves leader Trevor Hoffman is fashioning a longer hair style than in years past, reports out of spring training were that Mrs. Hoffman likes the longer locks.

Predicted Padres Pitching Prowess

The Friars are keeping the faith that their vaunted pitching staff can carry the team. That said, we thought it would be interesting to check out how the Bill James Handbook 2008 projects the staff to perform. For the club's presumed optimal starting rotation, the Handbook breaks it down as follows (Pitcher - W/L/ERA/IP/WHIP/K):

• Jake Peavy - 15 8 3.23 212 1.17 217


• Chris Young - 13 8 3.34 186 1.18 166


• Greg Maddux - 13 9 3.60 200 1.20 121


• Randy Wolf - 5 6 4.32 100 1.37 81


• Mark Prior - 5 4 3.60 75 1.23 85

Immediately striking is the similarity that the projections have in rotation spots one through three. Nobody appreciates Maddux's low walk rate more than FF, and we don't want to take anything away from him, but he hasn't posted a sub-4.00 ERA since the 2003 season. Peavy's numbers seem overly skewed by his injury-marred 2006 campaign while the projection ignores Chris Young's iterative, season-by-season improvement trend (see graph below). Friar fans will have to hope for better returns than those suggested by the Handbook if they are to remain competitive in the NL West.

Graph from FanGraphs.com

A big part of the team's success will likely depend on the performance of the bullpen. Nobody puts together a better 'pen than Kevin Towers (if only he could do the same for right-handed power hitters, but I digress). Once again the projections seem a little high, this time looking at player - ERA/S/IP/WHIP/K per 9:

• Trevor Hoffman - 2.80 39 61 1.07 8.26


• Heath Bell - 3.10 1 83 1.16 9.70


• Cla Meredith - 3.51 0 82 1.22 6.91


• Kevin Cameron - 3.90 0 60 1.47 7.65


• Joe Thatcher - No Handbook project listed