China Experiment Underwhelming

MLB's exhibition excursion to Wukesong Baseball Stadium, Beijing, China this weekend has been met by a series of yawns at FF. The idea seemed interesting at first, but has been more of a distraction than a fantastic opportunity. We're certain that the experience was a great chance for players, their families and members of the organization to head abroad an soak up a foreign culture. But was it a great opportunity for baseball? We doubt it.

Two games in played in Beijing will quickly fade into memories as two sellouts crowds of 12,224 seats at Wukesong baseball stadium total less than the average number of fans at a home Padre game in 2007 (34,445). Don't think so? If they don't fade now, they certainly will by the time the Olympics roll through China in August. In fact, the upcoming Olympiad will represent the last medal-bearing competition for baseball. Starting with the 2012 London games, baseball will be a demonstration sport - at best. Even so, the game seems more likely to sprout up near new military posts around the world rather than in China (i.e., Central Asia and the Middle East). A quick look at the 16 countries that have played Olympic baseball tells an important tale - proximity to the USA or an America military base have a prominent impact on the popularity of baseball, as does the country's political leanings (13/16 countries). The following map shows those Olympic baseball countries which also have at least one prominent US military base in red, those in close proximity in yellow and those that are fervently pro-American in green. The remaining blue countries are outliers to these statuses.

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Baseball will mostly grow via new generations who play early and often. To this end, MLB is sponsoring many youth camps in China and elsewhere. As for the current strategy, it would make more sense have their exhibition games happen in the offseason as have been traditionally played in Japan. Sure, the Chinese number in the billions of untapped potential baseball fans, but the World League of Football has proved that potential doesn't necessarily translate into commercial success for a sport. Let's also not forget that China has been granted a spot in the 2008 Olympics baseball competition that could have gone to a country that actually does embrace baseball.